China 2007 : Thoughts and Predictions | Fili’s World

21 Dec, 2006 in China by Fili
Tags: Asian Studies, China, chinese_culture

China 2007 : Thoughts and Predictions

What is China 2007 going to be like? Do you have any predictions about what’s going to happen in China or in regards to China on 2007?

I’m very curious about the China English/Expat bloggers opinions on this issue. Following "ProBlogger’s Group Writing Project - Reviews and Predictions" I thought I should ask the few China bloggers and China interested readers reading this blog to comment or trackback with their predictions for China 2007. It could be about anything - society, politics, expat life, chinese studies, as long as it’s China related.

Not being much of a expert about China, I will try and write down some of my thoughts and predictions based on the very new and limited view that I have of China.

My predictions about China :

The Chinese webshepere and blogsphere will become a more dominant power in the Internet - More Chinese Internet users, spending more time online and making a more advanced use of the Internet, coupled with the unique social Chinese Internet attributes of the Chinese Netizens and BBS groups will result in a very high growth in Chinese Internet business revenue. Chinese Internet will start giving English Internet a more serious competition on page views count and bloggers count, signifying a world of opportunities for the quick and smart web business entrepreneurs.
Foreign companies will continue to fail in penetrating the Chinese Internet - There are plenty of explanations why this happening in China, but I believe it’s safe to assume that there is something unique about Chinese culture and politics that makes it very difficult for successful western companies to make their way into the hearts (and pockets) of the Chinese people. Yahoo is doing okay, Google is showing genuine efforts, yet the top companies in China will remain China-based.
Chinese Internet will boost and maybe even redefine Web2.0 "Social Internet" - Few can really define what Web2 really is, but if you consider Web2 is about enabling platforms for online communities and user interaction then there aren’t many cultures as suitable as the Chinese. While western social-Internet still seems like it’s trying to re-educate the masses, setting the optimum somewhere between expressing one-self to being part of a community, it appears that the same tools and communal platforms are being used passionately by Chinese in a much more natural way. There are Chinese clones for just about every major Web2 company in the US, and it’s only a matter of time till the extra functionality and social interactions of the Chinese will make it into Web2 innovation, even if only targeting the Chinese market.
Chinese government will take measures to tighten control over Internet usage - with all that’s said about the Great Firewall of China and Internet censorship, it seems that information flow in China is faster and bigger than it ever was before. I believe that this would prove a genuine concern for the Chinese government which might feel things are getting out of control and will therefore try to impose more technological and regulatory limitations. It would be interesting to see how the Chinese government would react to the tension between globalization-capitalism and the need to maintain control over the Internet and how people use the Internet. Although most tend to see this tension as resulting in one side or the other, I think both can co-exist (with examples like Singapore).
China will continue to grow at a fast rate but will compete over the number 1 position with India - and later on, maybe with other high-growth potentials like Vietnam. There is a strong debate between the India and China researchers about the promise of those countries, comparing their attributes and trying to forecast their success, yet most of them seem to agree that India and China, with their people mass and rising middle-class, will continue to gain more economical influence.
China will become a more active member in the international community and in the UN - I believe that we’ll also see China become more active in their interaction with the US, taking more of a leader role. Furthermore, China might attempt to test its new international position on small issues to try and get a sense of the international response as a preparation for much bigger issues.
Chinese tourists will start flooding the world - There are already a lot more Chinese tourists around the world than there ever were before, and this will become noticeable in the upcoming year as countries discover the Chinese tourists market. I’ve heard of measures being taken by the Israeli government, as well as European countries, to try and match the Chinese tourist’s unique requirements.

Your turn. What’s your predictions for China 2007?

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20 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

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Karen M. Lynch | December 24th, 2006 at 9:31 am #

I think the Chinese government will recognize more of the repercussions of their one child policy. I read an interesting article on the aging population entering nursing homes … a first in a culture where children have always been responsible for caring for their elders.

And even more Chinese children will be adopted by loving families throughout the world … God willing.
Ashish Mohta | December 24th, 2006 at 9:32 am #

china has going to spend 120 billion$ on technology what do u think lol?
I also got entry in darrens project.
http://technospot.net/blogs/index.php/2006/12/19/predicting-the-evolution-of-techspot-insideout/

And i am feeding your blog.There wont be another chance to meet so many bloggers

Merry Christmas
Why I Love Problogger Group Writing Project | Kuala Lumpur is Home | December 24th, 2006 at 1:12 pm #

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China Law Blog | December 25th, 2006 at 10:40 am #

I think the Chinese government will continue increasing its crackdown against foreign companies that fail to obey Chinese law, especially those companies that do not register. This is in many ways the easiest and least controversial way for the government to side with those who are calling for decreasing foreign investment in China.
fiLi | December 25th, 2006 at 1:11 pm #

Hmmm… interesting. I thought it would go the other way. Especially concerning IP law and crackdown against piracy. I think China is aiming at becoming a more secure investment for foreign companies. Who do you think influences the Chinese government more? the Chinese people within or the economical forces from the outside?
fiLi | December 25th, 2006 at 1:14 pm #

Nice. That might happen, but I have a feeling that would be more of a demographic issue - dealing with the rising minorities and also the bad ratio between male and females in the country.
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[...] China 2007: Thoughts and Predictions by fiLi [...]
China Law Blog | December 25th, 2006 at 5:39 pm #

Fili –

You are right to predict an increased crackdown on IP piracy, but I do not see that as the opposite of my prediction. Rather, I see it as part and parcel of it. The bottom line is that the Chinese authorities and the courts (same thing) are starting to get tougher regarding the enforcement of many laws, foreign company registration laws and IP laws, being just some of them.

Good question regarding which influences the Chinese government more, its own people or outsiders. I definitely say its own people. The Chinese government is far more worried about losing legitimacy with its own people than with outsiders. The Chinese government seeks to stay in power and its own people are its biggest threat towards not being able to realize that.
Pedro’s Spot | Back from Christmas | December 26th, 2006 at 4:06 am #

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